The bigger question for Conservative Catholicism is whether the long-term trends still favor us. The mood of conservative Catholicism was prematurely triumphalistic at the election of Benedict XVI. We thought that John Paul II had transformed the college of cardinals enough that the election of a liberal pope was now impossible--and things would only get better there. Obviously, we were wrong about that. But there are other factors underlying that mood that may or may not remain true:
The sterility and bankruptcy of liberal Catholicism. This certainly remains true. Liberal Catholicism produces few children, most of whom slide into atheism and none of whom enter the priesthood.
The vitality of conservative Catholicism. Not sure about this one. Conservative Catholicism has a demonstrated ability to produce some enthusiastic laypeople and a few priestly vocations. These enthusiastic laypeople have larger families and make great efforts to pass the faith onto their children. It seems like there is enough vitality for this movement to at least perpetuate itself. But it placed a lot of hope in the papacy and, in recent years a least, in possibility that things were soon going to get better in the local dioceses and parishes, so that we would no longer be outsiders and weirdos in the local Church. That first hope is likely gone, and we're likely to see a slow down or reversal of the second hope. Depending on how far Francis takes things, I think we'll see increased attrition as some people throw in the towel and go Orthodox, full-on traditionalist, or give up on Christianity.
Younger priests. The only real hope (without papal power appointing friendly bishops) that conservative Catholicism (at least in the U.S.) has of actually going beyond self-perpetuation to transformation of the Church is in younger, orthodox, priestly vocations. We'll see how that trend perseveres in the face of this situation. I think with the episcopate in doubt again, we're likely to see that trend of orthodox seminarians slow down or stall, as you will need to either be flexible in your convictions or prepared for the possibility long-haul resistance under another generation of liberal bishops. Likewise, conservative parents will be more hesitant to send their sons to seminary for the diocesan priesthood if they don't trust the bishop or the seminary (especially if there are fears of a resurgence of homosexuality among the clergy and in the seminaries).
Still, we have an upcoming generation of clergy that are, as a group, far more conservative than the previous generation. Even if we have systematic discrimination in favor of the most liberal and malleable among them, that trend is going to have an effect on the pool of candidates for the episcopate and on the life of the average parish. (As Ross Douthat noted, Pope Francis was forced to look to Spokane, WA, to find a "poor man's Joseph Bernardin" for Chicago.) That should at least keep the liberal tide somewhat in check (a liberal bishop can only do so much if a significant portion of his clergy are against him). Maybe, in the long run, it can reverse it. If there's hope anywhere in the near future (assuming the papacy is lost for while), it's there.
The death of old liberal churches and rise of young conservative churches. I'm not sure about this one. The African church is definitely conservative in a lot of ways and will be a force keeping things in check. The Latin American church, on the other hand, seems to be a mix of conservatives and radicals, and it is larger and influential. I think it is hard to say what Africa is going to be like in a generation. My experience with African clergy in the U.S. hasn't been all that encouraging on this score. Maybe it is because most of the ones in the U.S. studied here and/or stick around because they prefer the liberalism (and first-world lifestyle) of the U.S., but they haven't seemed particularly conservative to me.
The sterility of liberal Catholicism means that it's only power is to destroy. It does not even have the power to perpetuate itself. Conservative Catholicism at least has that. So, the question is really whether liberal Catholicism has enough power to completely destroy conservative Catholicism. If it does not, then the long-term trends still favor the conservatives.
